"No climate catastrophe," scientists say in their new study, "rising CO2 levels will not significantly change Earth's temperature." Increasing the CH4 and N2O content will have very little noticeable effect.
A new publication in the International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences concludes that the climatic importance of CO2 has been over-exaggerated by the IPCC (UN) scientists.
The British and two German scientists have collaborated for decades on measuring the concentration of atmospheric gases using infrared absorption spectroscopy, so they are well acquainted with the absorption properties of these gases and are familiar with the HITRAN gas spectra database.
In the publication, the authors first find the wide variation in CO2 warming potential estimates surprising, noting that the IPCC's published estimates of climate sensitivity to doubling CO2 concentrations range from 1.5 ° C to 4.5 ° C.
Much of the warming comes from water vapor
In their study, the authors aim to simplify the method of achieving the climate sensitivity figure not only for CO2, but also for CH4 and N2O, and to do this by determining how exactly atmospheric absorption led to the current warming of 33 K, and then extrapolating this result to calculate the expected warming resulting from future increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.
Total 0.50 ° C warming from doubling CO2
The authors concluded that H2O is responsible for 29.4K out of 33K of warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3K, and CH4 and N2O combined - only 0.3K. The climate sensitivity to a future increase in CO2 concentration is calculated at 0.50 ° K, including the positive feedback effect of H2O, while the climate sensitivity to CH4 and N2O is practically undetectable - 0.06K and 0.08K, respectively.
No "significant changes in Earth temperature"
This result, according to the authors, strongly suggests that an increase in CO2 levels will not lead to significant changes in Earth's temperature, and an increase in CH4 and N2O levels will have very little noticeable impact.
Of the 33 ° C warming, 29.4 ° C is entirely due to the absorbing action of water vapor.
420ppm CO2 provides just 3.3 ° C of this warming, while methane and nitrous oxide are responsible for just 0.3 ° C.
No climate emergency
Contrary to the hyped propaganda, there is neither a climate emergency nor even any significant temperature rise due to rising CO2 levels.
The climate sensitivity for CO2 doubling is 0.45 ° C, which increases to 0.5 ° C when the 12% water vapor feedback is taken into account.