Coronavirus outbreak could start in September, scientists say

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Coronavirus outbreak could start in September, scientists say
Coronavirus outbreak could start in September, scientists say
Anonim

Recently, the news about the coronavirus has been coming more and more alarming and contradictory. Perhaps this is a natural consequence of the panic that inevitably occurs in times of major upheaval such as the CoVID-19 pandemic. Since the very first case of infection with the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, recorded in Wuhan at the end of 2019, there has been a series of shocks. Albeit not immediately, but gradually more and more conspiracy theories appear: some are questioning the existence of the virus, others are convinced of its artificial origin and further down the list. However, there is still reason to doubt the available data. For weeks now, the entire world press has been discussing the possibility that the Chinese government may be hiding the true death toll during the outbreak. Mistrust to the official information of the Celestial Empire added a new bill that restricts the publication of studies on the origin of COVID-19. Now all research needs to be coordinated with the government of the country. Now, as scientists from Cambridge, studying the origins of the disease, have found out, an outbreak of coronavirus could begin in mid-September in another city.

Coronavirus in Wuhan

According to Newsweek, geneticist Peter Forster of the University of Cambridge is leading a research project to study the historical processes that led to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ultimately, he and his team hope to identify "patient zero" - the first person to contract the novel coronavirus. To date, they have been able to plot the spread of SARS-CoV-2, while tracking genetic mutations that occur as it travels from China to Australia, Europe and the rest of the world.

Experts conducted a network analysis using more than 1000 coronavirus genomes. The analysis includes the date of infection of the patient and the "type" of the virus with which the person was infected - there are three types - A, B and C. The closest to the new coronavirus, the natural host of which is bats, turned out to be variant A, which is considered the original genome of the virus person. The same type was found in Chinese and American citizens, as well as in patients from Australia and the United States with an already mutated variant.

In most cases, however, type A virus was not found in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. Instead, type B was found in most Chinese citizens. In turn, type C, the "daughter" of type B, was identified during the first cases in Europe, as well as in South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong, but is apparently absent in mainland China.

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The virus breaks into the cells of the human body using thorns (corona)

According to the data collected by Forster and his colleagues, the outbreak of the coronavirus began between September 13 and December 7. This period assumes a constant mutation rate, which is unlikely, and therefore the timing may be erroneous. However, this is the best guess at the moment, as scientists are awaiting the results of analysis of further samples obtained from patients during 2019. Moreover, according to the researchers, it is possible that the outbreak did not occur near Wuhan, seven of the 11 detected cases were type A. The work was published in the journal in PNAS on April 8.

Let me remind you that the first recorded case of coronavirus was registered on November 17, 2019. According to the South China Morning Post, government data show that a 55-year-old resident of Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital, was the first person to be infected with COVID-19. Today it is believed that the virus at some point jumped to humans from an animal - probably from a bat. Also, scientists do not exclude the presence of an intermediate host of the coronavirus.

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Doctors in the midst of an epidemic in Wuhan, China

However, when and where the infection occurred is unknown. In December, the first cases identified were linked to a seafood market in Wuhan, which led to speculation that the virus was born. But as we learn more about the virus, this version of events looks less likely. Thus, the results of a study published in the journal The Lancet showed that some of the first people infected with the new coronavirus were not on the market. Let me remind you that since the first cases appeared at the end of last year, more than two million people have been infected with COVID-19 today. According to Johns Hopkins University, the virus has spread to 185 countries and regions. The death toll exceeded 150 thousand people.

Scientists are looking for a "zero patient" so that the pandemic does not happen again. Understanding the different types of viruses and what role they play in the spread of COVID-19 is “one of the pressing issues that needs to be addressed urgently,” the study authors write.

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