Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities for Russia

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Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities for Russia
Climate Change: Challenges and Opportunities for Russia
Anonim

The changing environment, as well as the harsh weather conditions, will certainly provide Russia with significant opportunities, but they will also be the main obstacles to the usual way of life of Russians - and these changes are already taking place. Russia, of course, will have more opportunities to test the strength of US security, both internal and external, while obstacles will weaken and even, perhaps, severely limit Moscow's ability to take full advantage of these completely new prospects.

Vladimir Putin, with a great delay, and in general with doubts about the role and responsibility of people for environmental change, only in 2019 approved the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. In January 2020, Dmitry Medvedev put forward a national climate change adaptation strategy that looks at “potentially beneficial” changes and states that Russia “can benefit” from environmental changes such as improved access to energy resources, as well as increasing productivity in agriculture. In Russia, it is now warming twice as fast as the international standard, and the goals set in the strategy shocked researchers and environmentalists, since almost nothing is envisaged to reduce carbon emissions in the country, which ranks 4th in the world by this indicator. It should be borne in mind that the economic climate in Russia is still determined by hydrocarbons, so for several years the authorities are unlikely to listen to the voices of scientists.

Melting Arctic Ocean

Taking advantage of the opportunities provided by the rapid melting of the Arctic ice, Putin has actually made the expansion of Russia's positions in the Arctic one of the main tasks. Russia has built the tools and structure needed to operate in these harsh conditions, and Moscow now has over 400 military installations, as well as over 40 icebreakers, to maintain its presence in the region.

  • Russia's superiority in the Arctic, as well as its control over the northern sea routes, will increasingly limit the US's ability to openly operate in the region and gain access there, especially given the US's lack of an icebreaker fleet.
  • Improved shipping conditions have in fact already opened a completely new, direct route for Russia and China to the shores of the United States and Canada, providing completely new accessibility to the coasts of North America, both for the supply of industrial goods and as a new front for naval operations. The US military must operate in an "entirely new sea" and also with an entirely new vulnerability on the northern borders of the United States. This threat is exacerbated by the level of Chinese interests there, when Beijing, along with the desire to create a "Polar Silk Road", is also making every effort to establish itself as an Arctic power, regardless of its remoteness.
  • Along with military construction in the Arctic, Russia is seeking to secure for itself firm official rights to the region with rich oil and gas fields, access to which was previously blocked by a thick ice sheet. Moscow is predicted to spend 235 billion dollars by 2035 on the development of the Arctic - on the expansion of the fleet of icebreakers, the development of ports, as well as gas production and production. Under the recently adopted Energy Security Doctrine, Russia will continue to expand housing construction and increase energy production, with a strong focus on gas exports.
  • While Russian shipping capabilities are indeed expanding due to melting ice and the growth of the icebreaker fleet, Russia appears to be testing Arctic-based weapons, namely hypersonic cruise missiles and nuclear-armed submarine drones. This poses another threat to the United States - from Russian missiles, both conventional and nuclear - deployed in the Arctic.

Melting ice and permafrost

In addition to the benefits that the melting Arctic provides, there are risks of serious negative consequences that cannot be ignored. In addition to floods, the melting of permafrost also threatens the infrastructure of the northern territories of Russia, including ports, roads, pipelines, buildings and structures, nuclear facilities, as well as storage facilities for hazardous waste that fail due to floating, sinking soil.

Northern regions of Russia provide about 75% of oil and 95% of gas, and disruptions in infrastructure due to melting ice and permafrost can cause serious disruptions in energy production and export, and, as a result, in the economic climate of the country, since more than 20 % of Russian GDP is accounted for by the energy-producing industries of the Arctic region. Currently, there are approximately 7,000 incidents per year on major oil and gas pipelines, caused by the melting of permafrost. For example, in May 2020, this caused an oil storage tank to fail, resulting in a 135 sq mi spill, and such incidents are likely to occur with increasing frequency unless there is a persistent drive to reduce them or more serious environmental initiatives. All this will require significant costs and efforts.

Agriculture

At the same time, Russian agriculture may be among the winners. Warming expands the territory of the country suitable for agriculture, increases productivity, as well as the period of fruiting in a number of regions. Therefore, the UN Food and Agriculture Commission predicts that Russia - currently the world's leading supplier of wheat - could occupy 20% of the global wheat market by 2038. If Moscow can effectively relocate farmers and their property to newly developed agricultural areas, Putin will be able to achieve his goal of turning Russia into an "agricultural superpower", which will give Moscow a significant geopolitical gain, given the growing food insecurity expected around the world due to climate change. …

But in agriculture, as in the case of the Arctic, there are obstacles. Russia is already dealing with heightened risks associated with severe weather conditions, from severe droughts and fires in some regions to heavy rains and floods in others. We now see examples such as 2014, when a long period of hot weather in Siberia caused forest fires over an area of more than 7 million acres. Perhaps even more serious, droughts and heatwaves will be even worse and will cover wider areas. Previous periods of hot weather and droughts led to a significant reduction in grain production in Russia, as well as to an increase in world grain prices. In addition, significant warming is causing an increase in the activity of insect pests and plant diseases.

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