Severe shallowing predicted for the Caspian Sea by the end of the 21st century

Severe shallowing predicted for the Caspian Sea by the end of the 21st century
Severe shallowing predicted for the Caspian Sea by the end of the 21st century
Anonim

Until the end of the 21st century, the level of the Caspian Sea may decrease by 9-18 meters. As a result, Baku will no longer be a port, the Kara-Bogaz-Gol gulf will disappear, and in the northern part of the sea, water will liberate vast areas of land. This conclusion was reached by scientists, an article with the calculations of which was published by the scientific journal Communications Earth & Environment.

"For comparison, if the North Sea level dropped by only two to three meters, it would be much more difficult to get into such large ports as Rotterdam, Hamburg or London for both large ships and small fishing vessels. a drop in the level of the Caspian Sea by at least nine meters - and this is the best case ", - commented one of the authors of the article, geologist from the University of Utrecht (Netherlands) Frank Wesseling.

The Caspian Sea is the largest non-freshwater body of water that is located inland and has no connection with the World Ocean. It was formed about 5.5 million years ago as a result of the fall in the level of the World Ocean and the rise of the bottom in the eastern part of the ancient Sea of Paratethys.

Observations of climatologists show that the area and volume of the Caspian Sea depends very much on how the average annual temperatures of its surface change, as well as on the amount of water in the rivers flowing into it - the Volga, Ural and others. In recent years, scientists have noticed that levels are slowly but steadily decreasing. This is due to the rise in temperatures due to global warming.

In their new study, Wesseling and his colleagues set out to find out how global warming will affect all the major lakes and continental seas of the world - including the Caspian Sea. Based on the observations of recent years, scientists have created a computer model of the Caspian Sea and other largest lakes in the world.

Their calculations showed that in the coming decades, the water level in many of the largest fresh and salt water bodies in the world may seriously decrease. This will especially affect the Caspian Sea, the area of which may sharply decrease due to the fact that water from its surface will evaporate faster, and ice cover will disappear in the northern part of the reservoir in winter.

If the Paris Climate Agreement can be implemented, the water level in the Caspian will drop by 9 meters. In other cases, he will fall 18 meters or more. In this case, the area of the Caspian will be reduced by about a third. This will mainly affect the coast of Russia and Turkmenistan: in particular, the shallow bay of Kara-Bogaz-Gol will completely disappear, and the northern coast of the sea will shift tens of kilometers to the south.

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Forecast of the future shallowing of the Caspian Sea

As a result, the Caspian seal, whose cubs spend the first days of their lives on the ice off the coast of Russia and Kazakhstan, may disappear from the face of the Earth. In addition, the number of beluga and many other unique representatives of the flora and fauna of the northern Caspian may sharply decrease.

In addition, as Wesseling and his colleagues note, changes in the outlines of the sea's borders can negatively affect not only the ecosystems of the Caspian Sea, but also cause political conflicts between countries whose territories are now located on its shores. Scientists hope that their calculations will attract the attention of officials and diplomats in all five states of the Caspian Sea and convince them that it is necessary to deal with the consequences of its shallowing now.

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